How Does ch-aviation Estimate and Forecast Aircraft Utilisation?

How Does ch-aviation Estimate and Forecast Aircraft Utilisation?

ch-aviation's aircraft utilisation estimates and forecasts are built using a layered methodology designed to maximise accuracy at the most granular level possible. Here is how it works.

Where the Data Comes From

ch-aviation draws utilisation data from two sources: the aircraft manufacturers and the airlines directly. Manufacturer data covers Airbus, ATR, BAe Systems, Boeing, Bombardier, De Havilland, Embraer, and Fokker.

Utilisation data is shown only where it is available. Some manufacturers require an airline's consent before their data can be shared with industry intelligence providers, and an airline may have authorised some — but not all — of the manufacturers whose aircraft it operates. ch-aviation works continuously with both manufacturers and airlines to expand coverage.

Seasonal Split

Utilisation is estimated and forecasted separately for two seasonal periods, reflecting real-world operational patterns and improving forecast precision:

• Summer: May to October
• Winter: November to April

How the Estimates Are Built

Forecasts cover both hours and cycles on a monthly basis. They are generated from the most specific data available, falling back to broader averages when needed:

• Aircraft + operator (most precise): where sufficient recent history exists, forecasts are built around an individual aircraft serial number (MSN) with its current operator. Monthly averages reflect seasonal patterns and the number of calendar days in each month.
• Aircraft type + operator: where individual-aircraft history is insufficient — for example, for aircraft not yet delivered — the model uses averages from other aircraft of the same type operated by the same operator.
• Aircraft type (broadest): where the above is also insufficient, a global same-type average is applied for summer and winter months, drawn from comparable aircraft with data in the last 12 months. This broadest level is available as an optional feature on request — to enable it, contact sales@ch-aviation.com.

Forecast Range

ch-aviation forecasts hours and cycles up to 5 years into the future, provided the underlying data conditions are met.

Where current figures are not yet available, ch-aviation also estimates hours and cycles for past months, going back up to 3 years. This historical estimation is applied where there is recent data for the aircraft, or where the aircraft has been newly delivered.

New or Rare Aircraft Types

For aircraft types with limited data, ch-aviation applies proxy logic, using a closely related variant as a reference. For example, B737-7 utilisation may be estimated using historical B737-700 data. This keeps forecasts grounded even for newer or less common types.

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